David Briddock asks if open-source stalwart Mozilla is about to self-destruct
Mozilla has been around since the dawn of the web. Over the years, it's made an invaluable contribution to the open-source movement in terms of projects, products and funding support.
However, as it celebrates its 18th birthday Mozilla's future looks uncertain. It has decided to forgo its primary funding stream, terminated its high-profile smartphone initiative and now appears to be veering off in a brand new direction.
What's really going on at Mozilla?
Browser Wars
When it comes to open-source browser development, Mozilla's big battle has been with Google Chrome. Historically speaking, Mozilla Firefox has always enjoys a strong following and a prominent position in the browser charts, but over the last few years, things have changed dramatically.
Despite being a latecomer to the browser game, today it's Google Chrome that dominates, while Firefox is increasingly seen as a niche alternative. Google has successfully levered its position as supplier of the world's favourite search engine, and it has attracted and engaged developers to create a sizeable collection of Chrome extensions and apps.
To capitalise on this momentum, Google also used its vast financial resources to create the Chrome operating system and encourage manufacturers to build Chromebook laptops and Chromebox desktops. Also, Google's highly popular Chromecast TV dongle works seamlessly out of the box with the Chrome browser.
Funding Hole
However, Google's financial outlay in pursuing search engine dominance has been of immense help in funding Mozilla projects. In fact, search engine referral payments have contributed up to 90% of Mozilla's $300 million income. This deal was struck at a time when all web interaction was done with PCs and Firefox was the fast rising star of the web browser marketplace.
Yet, in 2014, Mozilla decided it needed to distance itself from Google. Consequently, it abruptly terminated this income stream. Mozilla does have other search deals, including Baidu in China and Yandex in Russia, but strangely Mozilla decided to replace Google with Yahoo as the default Firefox search engine. This is confusing to say the least. Yahoo is not only going through its own set of financial and global positioning troubles, but it's also powered by Microsoft Bing.
Chief financial officer Jim Cook seemed unfazed about filling this funding hole. After all, he knew Mozilla had big plans for its new sponsored tiles and own ad revenue streams, and then there was the Firefox OS initiative for the mobile marketplace.
Unfortunately, this bullish optimism would soon begin to fade.
Goodbye To FireFox OS
At some point in 2015, Mozilla decided it would end its experiments with the Firefox mobile operating system. Firefox OS had been unveiled in 2013. The primary targets were the developing world and late adopters, which in turn meant delivering low-cost handsets. Very low-cost handsets in fact - as little as $25 in some cases.
Part of the plan was to increase user choice and offer far greater levels of control. To differentiate this OS from Google Android and Apple iOS, the focus was on delivering a web-first mobile platform. In other words, no native apps, only web apps.
The development community got quite excited by this news, but the same couldn't be said for consumers. Despite rock bottom pricing, sales were poor, and when a deluge of low-cost Android smartphones hit the marketplace, the battle was as good as lost. From a business perspective, Firefox OS was a failure.
In December 2015, Mozilla officially announced the end of the Firefox-powered smartphone dream. It will completely stop support and development of the operating system in May 2016, after the release of Firefox OS version 2.6. It will also stop accepting Android, desktop and tablet apps for its Marketplace, although it will continue to accept Firefox OS apps till 2017.
Rebirth
However, Mozilla isn't simply going throw away that huge investment in time and money. In reality, Firefox OS was designed from the start as a scalable platform - an operating system that works on, say, an HD TV just as well as on a lower-end smartphone.
Mozilla's latest push is to utilise what's already been achieved and apply it to the vast Internet of Things (loT) playground, which interconnects billions of devices in homes, retail establishments and industry. There's little doubt that loT technology is about to change the world around us, and Mozilla wants a place at the table.
Mozilla's response is to launch its Connected Devices project (wiki.mozilla.org/Connected Devices). This will be a genuine open-source project, with a core focus on the user experience and a set of build tools that encourage the resulting ecosystem to grow.
There are already a number of projects on the loT shortlist, each designed to whet the appetite of the open-source community. Each project has its own web page, and it's here you'll find details on the types of community help needed. Let's have a closer look at some of these projects.
Project Link
Project Link, which was originally called FoxLink, is an intelligent personal user agent that monitors your preferences, technology interaction and daily habits. This information is used to control network-connected devices around your home in an automated manner.
In operation. Link 'discovers' devices that use the Z-wave wi-fi protocols. Users can then interact with any connected device either directly in the home or remotely via a web app. The promise is that all this happens within a secure framework, and we'll always be in ultimate control.
Interestingly, the project website (wiki.mozilla.org/Project_Link) suggests most of the code will be written using the Rust language (rust-lang.org).
Project Sensor Web
The availability of network-connected sensors has never been higher. However, most are destined for proprietary commercial projects. One example is IBM's Watson services, which assemble a vast collection of public and private data but then strictly control information access.
Project Sensor Web (wiki.mozilla.org/Sensor_Web) aims to create a network of sensors that can gather crowdsourced data, which is accessible by everyone. Take a look at the Sensor Web image to see how Mozilla visualises the data flow.
The initial proof-of-concept pilot will be a crowdsourced air quality sensor network, targeting PM2.5 fine particle pollution (goo.gl/c6XGWC).
Project Smart Home
A future smart home solution would combine modular, affordably priced hardware with easily understood, rule-based software. Flexibility is the key, as this intelligent home vision begins to take shape over the coming years.
Project Smart Home (wiki.mozilla.org/Smart Home) is Mozilla's answer to polished, commercial-focused initiatives like Apple's Homekit or open-source DIY solutions based on platforms like the Raspberry Pi and Arduino boards.
In terms of positioning, it fits somewhere between the two. The aim is to provide something far more straightforward to deploy than a DIY solution, which still delivers the levels of openness and control that's missing from Apple's proprietary offering.
Project Vanni
One of the most innovative and interesting projects on the list is Vaani (wiki.mozilla.org/Vaani). It's an enabler package for developers and device makers who'd like to add a voice interface to their devices in a flexible and customisable way.
Pretty much everyone agrees voice is destined to become an increasingly important technology interface. The main challenge for the Vanni team is to create something that has its own distinct identity compared with Google Now, Apple Siri and Microsoft Cortana.
An obvious initial target is to integrate Vaani with the Smart Home project, but it's equally applicable to a range of other loT applications, and today, at least, we don't have an open and scalable voice interface solution.
Project Smart TV
This project is the most straightforward to explain. In a nutshell, it takes the existing Firefox OS 2.6 development and applies it to the HD television market.
Even so, it won't be plain sailing. Many of Mozilla's other projects rely mostly on the open-source community for their success, but this one is heavily reliant on TV manufacturers signing up to a Firefox OS installation. Whether they really want to be associated with this open-source project is unclear.
MozVR
It seems Mozilla also wants a piece of the fast-moving virtual reality (VR) scene. The website points to iOS, Android and Oculus Rift activity streams (mozvr.com). This means Mozilla aims to target both smartphones (say, with the Google Cardboard headset) and PCs equipped with high-performance graphics cards.
VR is far removed from Mozilla's web technology roots, and once again it comes up against strong competition, so why bother? Is it just to keep the Mozilla name in the news? Or maybe attract new developers into the Mozilla family, who might then get involved with other projects?
Bold Or Reckless?
No organisation can afford to rest on its laurels in the technology industry, and despite Stirling work over the past 18 years, Mozilla is no exception.
The loT arena certainly has plenty of potential for innovation and revenue generation. As Ari Jaaksi, Connected Devices senior vice president, said in a blog post, "The Internet of Things is changing the world around us, with new use cases, experiences and technologies emerging every day."
Even so, there's plenty of reasons for skepticism. Firstly, Mozilla is late to the loT party. A quick look at the Project Smart Home wiki page clearly illustrates its embryonic status. There's an awful lot of ground to make up and a great deal of work to be done in motivating the open-source developer community.
Another problem is that it's rather too close to the failed Firefox OS scenario for comfort. The plan is to reuse a considerable slice of this work in the loT arena. Yet, once again, it will confront technology from Google and Apple, plus other strong competitors like IBM.
Worst of all, it could dilute the activities and developer community focus around the Firefox web browser and tools. This is clearly still Mozilla's strongest area, so is it worth putting this core work under pressure?
The End?
Let's be clear about something. We should all congratulate Mozilla and its open development community for battling against the technology industry giants. The open-source movement might not exist at all without Mozilla. Competition in the technology world provides choice, spurs innovation and helps to keep everyone honest.
Even so, Mozilla does give the impression of an organisation in disarray, scrabbling around for ideas and willing to take a punt on the latest buzz. It's not exactly the end of Mozilla just yet, but the warning signs are there.
Amid all the chaos, Mozilla has tried to maintain progress with its core open web technology. It cannot afford to lose any more ground or squander its hard won reputation. The new add blocker sits well with its stance on privacy, user tracking and cookies, and yet there's a rumour it's looking for an alternative home for its Thunderbird email and chat client.
Will the new loT direction kickstart a revival for Mozilla? Only time will tell, but to survive Mozilla must maintain the support of its dedicated and passionate community of developers and volunteers. They need to be excited about the future and driven to build open software alternatives.
If Mozilla does disappear, that only leaves three web browser players: Chrome, IE/Edge and Safari. More importantly, out of these, only Chrome would be cross-platform, and all would be free to pursue their own browser agendas, knowing consumers can't switch to a competitive, truly open alternative.
Get Involved
If you'd like to help Mozilla with its loT vision, there are a number of ways you can get involved. Software developers are always in demand, but testing, documentation, language translation and educational roles are just as important too.
The best place to start is the Connected Devices participation page (wiki.mozilla.org/Connected Devices/Participation), where you can discover which project, or projects, interest you most.