David Crookes looks at Microsoft's plans for Windows 7 now that its latest operating is available
Microsoft's release of Windows 10 is just days away. It is the successor to the ill-fated Windows 8 and 8.1 operating systems and it has, in the upgrade process, skipped an entire number, as many of you will know. The company has kept quiet over the reason why it has done this, leading to speculation that it's because the number 9 is unlucky in Japan or that it's to do with an issue surrounding software checking for Windows 95 or 98. But the effect has been to put some distance between the new and old. The only problem is the old could so easily linger and bite Microsoft on the bum.
When Microsoft announced Windows 10, it said it would be available for free to anyone with an official copy of Windows 7 or 8/8.1. This was designed to make it easier to wipe the slate clean, get as many people as possible moving over and to lay down a new platform with a large userbase that can blow rivals such as Apple's OS X, Linux, Android, ChromeOS and all of the other pretenders clean out of the water.
Free is a good strategy for getting people switching (50% of Mac users switched to Yosemite within two months), so if Microsoft achieves anything like that percentage, it will be a job well done, especially because Windows has 1.5 billion daily users. But even though Apple and Android and so many others have gone down this route before, Microsoft's move has been met with scepticism. Why, many ask, is a company which has derived so much revenue from selling its operating system suddenly changing its tactics?
The motivation for this questioning lies behind Microsoft's assertion that Windows 10 will be free "for the lifetime of the device". It hasn't clearly defined what it means by this. Will it be free forever on that particular device or will Microsoft have its own figure on what a lifetime means? Will it make any difference if you decide to significantly alter your PC's innards: would that still fall under the terms of the original device, or would it be deemed to be new and thus invoke a Windows 10 charge from that point on?
Microsoft just isn't saying much beyond stressing that its business model for Windows is not changing and that it will continue to charge licence fees for Windows through PC manufacturers (that is, for new machines rather than those being upgraded). It has dismissed talk of a subscription, saying it has "no plans to charge consumers" even though saying "no plans" doesn't actually rule it out forever more. Although it's most likely the case that Microsoft is instead looking to use Windows 10 to boost the uptake of Office 365, OneDrive and Windows Store apps, the uncertainty has been sitting in the back of many a user's mind.
It would not, therefore, be too much of a surprise if users of Windows 7 decide that an upgrade to 10 is not for them at this present time. Windows 7 is seen as a solid, dependable, usable and enjoyable operating system, and users have shown great loyalty since it was released in 2009. In June this year, Windows 7 had a 60.98% share, according to netmarketshare.com, beating Windows 8.1 into second place with 13.12% and the perennial hanger-on Windows XP on 11.98%. Those figures are well ahead of Mac OS X Yosemite on 4.54%, but they also show the amount of work faced by Microsoft. An upgrade is available (Windows 7 users could have switched up to 8/8.1), but many choose not to go down that path.
But what of Windows 7? What is about to happen to it now that Windows 10 is finding its way to hard drives across the world? A billion devices run Windows 7, a figure close to the number involved with Windows XP around six years ago. This is the figure that Terry Myerson, Microsoft's executive vice president of the Windows and Devices Group, is predicting for Windows 10 in three years' time. But Windows 7 has continued to increase in popularity despite the looming launch of Windows 10: in June, StatCounter showed that 7's market share rose 0.6%, and Netmarketshare had a more optimistic figure, putting the Windows 7 share at 3.22. Much of this, experts suggest, has been to put people in a position to download the Windows 10 upgrade, but we won't know for certain for a few weeks at least.
What this has done is push Windows 7 into the popularity territory that XP once enjoyed. At its height, XP ran on 76.2% of all Windows PCs and everyone saw the effect of that years later. Last year, Microsoft ended support for Windows XP after 12 years and turned the OS into a zombie, sparking 'XPocalyse' headlines and effectively leading users towards a scramble to upgrade in order to protect themselves from security problems and a lack of technical support. A good many people moved to Windows 7 at great upheaval and cost, with staff having to be retrained and computers upgraded or replaced where it was necessary to do so. There were software compatibility issues, and many could not figure why they should upgrade when the existing system worked fine.
As if to underline that kind of thinking - and to show that it's not entirely Luddite but does have sensible origins - a 30-year-old Commodore Amiga was found to be controlling the air conditioning and heating of 19 schools in the Grand Rapids School district of Michigan. The programmer worked on the system as a teenager but lives nearby and is on hand to fix any problems. To upgrade to a newer OS and computer could cost as much as $2 million, so the decision has been made to keep things ticking over until it becomes absolutely vital to make the move. Many companies and individuals will think the same when it comes to Windows 7 (and indeed Windows XP).
For those who decide to stand their ground and stay with an older system, there's some good news at least. Mainstream support for Windows 7 ended on 13th January this year, but it's now under the banner of extended support. This is set to end on 14th January 2020, which means users have a good four-and-a-half years before they have to make an XP-esque decision (those who are using Windows 8.1 can, incidentally, continue to benefit from mainstream support until 9th January 2018 and extended support until 10th January 2023).
Those who decide to stick with Windows 7 will therefore still be able to benefit from security patches but it does mean there won't be any feature updates over the coming years. "Extended support lasts for five years and includes security updates at no cost, and paid hotfix support," says Microsoft. "Microsoft will not accept requests for design changes or new features during the extended support phase." And when the extended support ends, that's it. No more security fixes unless it's absolutely vital (which is what happened a single time with XP), but that's still a good amount of time away to be worrying too much now.
Yet Microsoft doesn't plan on Windows 7 being around for much longer in real terms. It's keen to eat away at Windows 7's userbase, and it does not want significant numbers of people using Windows 7 come 2020, only to see lots of scare-mongering news reports and negative press about forcing people to switch up. The ending of support for XP could not have come at a worse time given the worldwide economy was still at an unhealthy stage, and while things should have improved by 2020, pulling the plug on people (many of whom don't keep up with tech so didn't see it coming) is always better if the numbers affected are as low as they possibly can be.
But it won't be easy for Microsoft. Windows 7 has cemented itself in the psyche of computer users to such a great degree that the appetite for a further change isn't always seen as desirable. Companies may be able to replace the OS with a freebie, but it's still treading into an unknown. With Windows 7 Professional, the IT departments of companies know they have an operating system that works -just like that Commodore Amiga works in America - and they don't want anything to jeopardise that. With Windows 7 Enterprise excluded from the free upgrade offer, companies may be reluctant to call their Software Assurance plans to upgrade or make a purchase if they do not have it. The problem, though, is that Microsoft is introducing something that could throw a spanner in the works.
Whereas before, it was up to users to accept updates, with Windows 10 the decision is taken away: everyone has to allow them on to their systems, so if Microsoft wants to put something on there, then it can. "Windows 10 Home users will have updates from Windows Update automatically available, Microsoft says on its specifications page (www.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/windows-10-specifications). Professional users are also affected, but "Windows 10 Pro and Windows 10 Enterprise users will have the ability to defer updates."
For home users, removing the ability to control what can and cannot be installed has not gone down well, and it has become an issue that may well persuade some to hang fire with Windows 7 a while longer. Even though "early adopters" can choose to see the new features straight away and ordinary users get them a few weeks later once obvious bugs are ironed out, the feeling of intrusion is a stark one. It's no less painful for business users, who may know that the updates can be deferred (most likely to ensure they're not bringing down computers left, right and centre), but that's only putting off the inevitable. What if an update ruins something they very much depend on?
Microsoft seems to have the answer for business users at least. The updates sent out for Windows 10 home users will act as a testing ground for the corporates. The details were spelt out in a blog post by Jim Alkove, the director of program management at Microsoft, which were picked up on by Gordon Kelly at Forbes.com. "We are introducing a new approach for business customers, which we are referring to as the Current branch for Business," Mr Alkove began.
"By putting devices on the Current branch for Business, enterprises will be able to receive feature updates after their quality and application compatibility has been assessed in the consumer market, while continuing to receive security updates on a regular basis. This gives IT departments time to start validating updates in their environments the day changes are shipped broadly to consumers, or in some cases earlier, if they have users enrolled in the Windows Insider Program. By the time Current branch for Business machines are updated, the changes will have been validated by millions of Insiders, consumers and customers' internal test processes for several months, allowing updates to be deployed with this increased assurance of validation."
In a nutshell, that means that Microsoft will see if any problems are spotted during home use of Windows 10 updates, and only then will they be rolled out to the customers that really matter. It makes sense - businesses could be crippled by a rogue update - but it doesn't really leave home users protected, especially when the update just appears. This doesn't happen with Windows 7 and 8.1, because users are able to determine how they want the updates to be installed - with an option for never if need be. But even then trouble can come calling.
An update for Windows 7 in December had to be withdrawn when some users complained it was blocking the installation of software containing digital signatures. A second update had to be issued to remove the first from affected machines. When problems like that are shown to surface even on operating systems that have been around for years, it makes the job of budging a good wedge of users off Windows 7 and on to Windows 10 all the harder, especially when auto-updates are brought into the equation.
It will be interesting to see what happens from this point on, then. Microsoft's intention is to try to demolish the Windows 7 userbase that, at one time, it fought to hard to build, so it doesn't eat away at its resources and cause a problem in 2020. At the same time, it's committed to supporting it until 2020, which throws those who love it a lifeline. For those buying a new PC, though, Windows 10 will be the only option in the future (that said, Hewlett Packard does not think it will have Windows 10 preinstalled on computers until "mid-August to October"). That's because Microsoft set a deadline of 31st October 2014 for OEMs to stop building new PCs containing Windows 7 Home Premium.
What happened around that date shows the life Windows 7 may still have in it. The manufacturers knew that pulling pre-installed Windows 7 machines would cause consternation, which is why Dell tried to whip up sales of Windows 7 machines before the axe fell. Microsoft then said the date was posted in error: "We have yet to determine the end of sales date for PCs with Windows 7 preinstalled."
But that's because the only alternative was Windows 8/8.1, which Microsoft was struggling with. Windows 10 is different. This time, it really could be a make or break moment for the Windows OS, and if people are still talking about the benefits of Windows 7 and if they're getting upset at the prospect of it becoming a zombie in 2020, then Microsoft will have failed. To prevent that, it will be spending millions of marketing dollars promoting the upgrade path. Whether it works and what it would mean for Windows 7 remains to be seen.