Windows 10 may be good for Microsoft, but it won’t give PC manufacturers much of a boost. Nicole Kobie reveals why
Windows 10 has arrived – but PC manufacturers shouldn’t count on a sharp spike in sales. In the past, the arrival of a new version of Windows has typically sparked a rush of hardware upgrades: after Windows 7 launched in 2009, PC sales saw a substantial boost, according to data from Gartner.
But since then, subsequent releases of Windows have kept the hardware requirements unchanged, and it’s become unnecessary to invest in a new computer to run the latest OS. When Windows 8 and 8.1 launched, hardware sales actually followed a downward trend. And history looks set to repeat with Windows 10, which makes it easier than ever to install the new OS on your existing hardware.
“For the first time, Microsoft is offering consumers a free upgrade [to] Windows 10 if they have a valid Windows 7 or 8 licence, while for enterprises the upgrade position will depend on their licence conditions,” said IDC analyst Chrystelle Labesque. “Consequently, Windows 10 could be a success as an OS, independently from hardware sales this time.”
“Windows 7 needed additional hardware (storage or memory), and Windows 8 needed touch – but Windows 10 doesn’t require fundamental hardware upgrades,” Labesque added. “Therefore, the impact on PC [sales] is likely to be less significant because you don’t need a new machine to run Windows 10.”
IDC expects Windows 10 to have a positive impact on device sales – just not for PCs. Instead, Labesque predicts that tablets and smartphones might see a boost. That doesn’t mean PC sales are terrible: last year was “an exceptionally good year for PC shipments following the end of Windows XP support,” while consumers were tempted with low-cost laptops.
British PC makers were more optimistic about the arrival of the new OS. David Furby, managing director of Novatech, said: “We’re expecting to see an increase in sales when Windows 10 launches, although not instantly as, say, when Windows 95 or Windows 7 was launched.”
That’s less to do with the new OS and more to do with the last one, however. “Windows 7 to Windows 10 is a much easier transition for the end user than Windows 7 to Windows 8,” he said. “Therefore we expect some people will have held off buying a new machine with Windows 8 on it, waiting for Windows 10, despite the free upgrade.”
Generally, he believes the rolling updates won’t have much of an effect, as people have long stopped investing in new PCs to coincide with a new version of Windows. “In our experience, people tend to buy machines when the old one breaks and is beyond economic repair, or when there’s a new technology or format released,” Furby said.
Toby Roberts, a director at Wired2Fire, said the combination of Windows 10 and the Z170 chipset using the Intel Skylake architecture should give a “reasonable bump” in sales, and any negative impact from the shift to rolling updates would be limited to corporate deals. “As this is the last true brand-new OS, rather than the new evolving OS model, it may affect business purchases,” he said. “However, our sales are driven by games, and this is more dependent on the demands games developers are putting on the hardware.”
Another issue holding back PC sales is availability. Previously, Microsoft would give PC makers as long as two months from RTM to the official release of the OS, making it viable for manufactures to have new hardware on their shelves for launch day. This time around, Microsoft’s RTM was only a fortnight prior to launch.
Furby said the shorter deadline had “absolutely” caused problems for the team, and that Novatech’s full range of PCs wouldn’t be available at launch, not least because component manufacturers may not have drivers ready.
However, Furby added that his “team of brilliant engineers” likes a challenge. “Once we get the final version of an OS (RTM), we have to package it up with the relevant drivers for our hardware options to ensure it installs quickly and easily in our production facility,” he said. “All our range models will have to be individually tested to ensure they work correctly with Windows 10. In the past, we’ve allowed two months for this process. In this instance we’re trying to do the work in two weeks. That gives you some idea of the pressure my engineers are under right now.”
Some devices were already on shelves for the launch last month, but most will likely arrive in September and October – possibly just missing the key back-to-school period. However, the hardware already on shelves isn’t headed to the rubbish tip. “Retailers and e-tailers can continue to promote existing devices and inform end users about the free upgrade opportunity as promoted by Microsoft under the motto ‘buy one, get (Windows) 10 free’,” Labesque said. “For companies that require testing, the promotion and focus will be in the autumn, giving hardware vendors more time.”
Despite the lack of a bump to their bottom lines, Roberts and Furby both welcomed the new OS, saying the Start button, virtual desktops and other new features will help encourage users to make the switch. “I predict business adoption from 7 to 10 will be a lot faster than XP to 7 – but that’s just a prediction,” Furby said.