Monday, 14 December 2015

Is Windows 10 Having A Wobble?

Is Windows 10 Having A Wobble

Microsoft’s latest operating system came out in July. Sarah Dobbs looks at how hard Microsoft is willing to push it onto users…

Upgraded to Windows 10 yet? Microsoft’s newest operating system is meant to be great, ditching the features of Windows 8 that people didn’t like and introducing all kinds of new stuff; it’s meant to be the operating system that’ll stick around for years, work on every device with every imaginable app, and finally persuade those slow adopters to ditch Windows XP at long last.


It got off to a pretty flying start too. Within four weeks of its launch on 10th July, Microsoft’s stats showed that it had been installed on 75 million PCs and tablets. To put that in context, it’s about double the number of computers that had installed Windows 8 within a month of its release, and nearly four times as many as had installed Windows Vista in its first month.

While that might’ve been cause to crack out the champagne at Redmond back in August, since then things have slowed down a bit. Analysis of desktop internet usage by both NetApplications and StatCounter showed a slowing down in increased market share for the new operating system: after its first month, Windows 10 accounted for around 5% of devices recorded online, but by the end of September it had only crept up another 1.5% or so (numbers vary slightly depending on which source you look at, but both show a tailing off). At the time of writing, estimates put its market share at about 9% – with Windows 8.1 sitting at 13%, Windows XP at 9%, and Windows 7 at a massive 50%.

Microsoft has said its goal is to get Windows 10 onto a billion devices by 2018; while there’s still plenty of time left, that goal is still quite a way off. So, how can Satya Nadella and co convince more people to switch – and, if you’re one of the people who haven’t upgraded your computer yet, should you?

Free Upgrades


The initial rush of upgrades is fairly easy to explain. There’s the thrill of the new, for one thing; any new (and well-promoted) product is likely to do brisk business in its first couple of weeks. Then there’s the fact that Windows 8 was pretty widely disliked – with its Metro interface that seemed to confuse and frustrate most people. Anyone using an operating system they hated is likely to want to upgrade as soon as humanly possible.

The real reason Windows 10 did so well in its first couple of weeks, though, was that Microsoft gave it away for free; not just bundled with new PCs, but to existing users. Anyone who was already running Windows 7 or 8.1 on a device that was compatible with Windows 10 was entitled to a completely free upgrade. If you’re included in that group, you’re probably rolling your eyes, because Windows 8 and 8.1 users weren’t just entitled to free Windows 10 upgrades. They were  aggressively badgered into upgrading. A Windows 10 icon appeared in their taskbars, and wouldn’t go away. Instead, it regularly popped up a reminder that Windows 10 is free and available, and all you’d have to do was click to get started…

So yeah – it’s no surprise that a lot of people took Microsoft up on their offer. There’s no way to know how many of those people would’ve upgraded to the new version anyway, of course, but looking at how much faster people adopted Windows 10 compared to previous systems, it seemed like it was a pretty good ploy on Microsoft’s part (except that it didn’t make them any money, of course), and a great way to get the Windows brand back on it’s feet after recent stumbles.

However, it’s been a couple of months now, so most people who are planning to take Microsoft up on its offer of a free upgrade have probably already done it. Now, the hard work of persuading everyone else starts.

Marketing


Microsoft has always had a bit of an image problem. Unlike Apple, which has positioned itself as the super-cool company that makes products to make their customers cool too, Microsoft doesn’t really have much of an identity. For those of us who’ve grown up using it, it’s just sort of there. It’s familiar enough that for Windows users – and that’s around 90% of all desktop/laptop users – don’t really think about it in terms of whether they like it or not. We just use it.

That’s a problem for Microsoft’s marketing department, though, because you can’t sell someone something new if they barely even think about the thing they’re already using. Why would you change something that works well enough? In that department, if in no other, Windows 8 might be a bit of a blessing, since it at least gave people something to dislike, and thus motivation to move on. At the same time, though, perceived failures like Vista and Windows 8 make people wary of signing up for a new operating system that might turn out to be equally unloved.

What Microsoft needs to do is convince users that Windows 10 is a step forward, and also that it’s somehow aspirational; something that will make their lives better. The current advertising campaign is fairly convincing on that front. It focuses on children, and the ways in which technology will change or improve their lives, and apart from the slightly questionable way one of the ads positions Paloma Faith alongside Billie Holiday as important cultural figures, it seems like a pretty solid campaign. No-one’s going to argue with the idea that kids are the future, so positioning the Microsoft brand as the company that’s going to accompany these kids on their journey to making the world a better place seems smart. Plus there’s plenty of scope for variations on the theme, without getting too bogged down in backstory in the way that some over-ambitious ad campaigns sometimes do.

More Free Stuff


A few nice TV spots probably won’t be enough to sell another 900,000,000-odd copies of Windows 10, though. Microsoft is going to have to try a bit harder than that, and also come up with ways of convincing people more interested in technology than children that they too, should make the switch.

That harder sell has already started. First up, Microsoft launched a special offer in the US that saw over 1,000 movies, games, apps, and songs available for just $0.10 to Windows 10 users. It was a limited time only offer, but Microsoft figured cheap access to the likes of Angry Birds Star Wars and Jurassic World for mere pennies would be enough to convince some of those people who’d been ignoring their ‘free Windows 10 upgrade!’ popup to finally take the plunge.

Next, Microsoft launched AppComparison for Android devices. Install that on your phone or tablet and it’ll take stock of all the other apps you’ve got installed and let you know which ones are also available on Windows 10 devices – as well as suggesting alternatives for any that aren’t available. It’s supposed to persuade Android users who worry that there just aren’t as many apps available for Windows devices, though quite how many Android users there are who are dithering over getting a Windows phone is unclear.

So far it’s not been a total success because, as it turns out, there are quite a few apps that really aren’t available for Windows yet, and the alternatives aren’t always particularly appropriate. Still, if Microsoft gets its way, that’s a situation that’ll improve over the coming months.

Pushiness


From the number of times I’ve already mentioned the upgrade pop-ups, you might’ve guessed that I’m one of those awkward Windows 8.1 users who hasn’t yet bitten the bullet and moved over to Windows 10. If you’re like me, you might want to know that Microsoft is about to get really pushy. For starters, even if you haven’t yet accepted the upgrade, you might find that Windows 10 files have already been downloaded onto your PC. If your computer is set to download automatically from Windows Update, Microsoft will have ‘helped’ you by pre-loading some of the software you’ll need onto your computer, so it’s ready to spring into action the moment you decide you want to upgrade.

That bit of sneakiness came out in September, though the push began in July. When questioned about it, a Microsoft spokesperson said it was totally normal practice – although some users who didn’t fancy handing over 6GB of space on their PC for an upgrade they hadn’t yet agreed to, or those who hit their ISP’s data cap as a result of the massive download, weren’t best pleased about it.

Next year, the Windows 10 upgrade will go from being an optional extra to a ‘Recommended Update’. At that point, if you have recommended updates activated in your Windows settings – the safest option for the majority of users – you won’t be asked to update to Windows 10, it’ll just happen. Users will still need to approve the installation, so you’re not going to suddenly switch on your computer and discover everything’s changed, but it’s going to download itself automatically. Basically, Microsoft won’t be asking you to update, it’ll be telling you.

To Upgrade Or Not To Upgrade?


Whether or not that’s a problem probably depends on how stubborn you are. If your immediate impulse is to reject the upgrade, you’ve probably already turned off automatic updates in Windows Update – and you’re probably tech savvy enough to make that decision for yourself. For people who don’t think about that kind of stuff, though, is it a problem?

Windows 10 has, generally, been pretty well received. While Windows 8 racked up a lot of negative reviews, Windows 10 has been welcomed as a pretty good OS that kept enough of the feel of Windows 7 to be comfortable for long-term users while introducing some decent new features. Being the newest operating system also means it’s Microsoft’s baby, and will be getting plenty of attention – in the form of patches, updates, and bug fixes – over the next few years. For anyone who wants to just use their computer without having to worry about how it’s running, it should be a secure, sensible update. For Windows 7 users, there’ll be a bit of a learning curve at first, but nowhere near as much of a shock as there was in Windows 8. And for Windows 8.1 users, well, we’ve not really had long to get attached to it, have we?

Ultimately, maybe we should just accept that, sooner or later, if we choosing to use Windows, that’s going to mean Windows 10. Microsoft is clearly going to push as hard as it can to get it onto our computers, and there doesn’t seem much point in resisting. While we’ve only got a couple of months’ worth of data to go on at the moment, a lot of people have already updated, and while the initial rush has worn off, it’s still converting users of older operating systems at a decent enough rate – when Threshold 2, the first update to Windows 10, was released, there was a significant spike in upgrades, and that seems likely to happen every time there’s an update or another reason for media coverage.

If you are still holding out, it’s worth bearing in mind that the one-year period for Windows 7 and 8.1 users to upgrade for free ends next July. After that, when you decide to make the leap, you’re going to have to pay for it. Maybe we should all just give in, do what Microsoft wants, and upgrade now?


A Windows Timeline


Lost track of when you previously upgraded and to what? Here’s a short history of Windows operating systems to date…

1985 – Windows 1.0
A sort of extension to MS DOS that was meant to compete with Apple’s Lisa, but wasn’t well liked.

1987 – Windows 2.0
The most significant thing here was probably the introduction of overlapping windows, a feature all of us would learn to abuse over the years.

1990 – Windows 3.0
The one where Windows caught on, it came with apps like Notepad and Paintbrush built in.

1992 – Windows 3.1
Codenamed Janus, this update bought in TrueType fonts.

1995 – Windows 95
Windows 95 introduced the Start button and taskbar, and is probably the first iteration that’s still recognisable today.

1998 – Windows 98
Internet-related applications started to be bundled with Windows from 98 onwards – it came with Internet Explorer, Outlook Express, NetMeeting, and other web-focused programs.

2000 – Windows ME
The last of the DOS-based incarnations of Windows, ME might be the least popular version of Windows ever.

2001 – Windows XP
This is the one that just won’t die. XP was wellloved, despite the fact that it was the first version of Windows to introduce Windows Product Activation.

2006 – Windows Vista
As hated as XP was loved. Vista came with User Account Control, a feature that was meant to beef up security, but actually just annoyed everyone.

2009 – Windows 7
Another popular one, 7 was speedy and streamlined where Vista was bloated, and also had built-in support for touchscreens.

2012 – Windows 8
Microsoft tried to convince everyone tiles were better than a Start button, and failed.

2013 – Windows 8.1
An antidote to many of the problems with 8, 8.1 reintroduced the Start button, but kept the Metro interface and Charms.

2015 – Windows 10
The one we’ve been talking about. It ditches Charms, brings back the Start menu, tweaks the tiles into something quite different, and adds in the ability to run apps from the desktop. Will it be regarded as affectionately as XP in a decade’s time? We’ll have to wait and see